If you happened to listen to auto executives talk about January vehicles sales, everything in the industry is hunky dory. True, it was not a bad month, but there's a lot more to glean from those monthly sales reported by Autodata Corp.
Here are 10 things I think I know from January's sales numbers:
1. The automotive market is getting better. Sure, the SAAR — seasonally adjusted annual rate — hit 12.6 million, but that number is high. Who knows what this year is going to bring or how the economy is going to turn. People are going to continue to buy cars and trucks, but the final number in the United States is much more likely to stay below 12 million total new vehicles sold.
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2. Consumers care more about space than they do gas mileage. When push comes to shove, consumers say fuel efficiency is important because that's what the media and pretentious neighbors have taught them to say. Ask them if they want a more fuel-efficient vehicle, and consumers will say yes. But really, that's a stupid question. Would anyone say he or she wants a less-efficient vehicle? Consumer actions speak much louder than words. When you examine the top-selling vehicles, no brand's highest mileage vehicle is its top selling one. In fact, fuel-sipping cars were not the No. 1 choice industrywide. Truck and SUV sales jumped 28.5 percent, while car sales were up 7 percent.
Apparently, what people really want are their neighbors to drive more fuel-efficient vehicles.
3. Crossovers and small SUVs are hot, hot, hot. When the Honda CR-V outsells the Civic something big is going on. In fact, CR-V sales are up 68.9 percent. Ford Escape sales are up 29.9 percent and Chevy Equinox sales are up 35 percent. These kinds of numbers are all through the segment: Toyota RAV4, up 41.8 percent, GMC Terrain, up 48 percent, Mazda CX-7, up 45.3 percent.
Consumers can't get enough crossovers.
4. General Motors Co.'s Lamdas have legs. It's been four years since GM introduced its Lamda platform, the underpinnings of the GMC Acadia, the Buick Enclave, the Chevrolet Traverse and now-defunct Saturn Outlook. These are the big seven-passenger crossovers that just keep on selling.
All told, this group represented 18,675 units sold in January, making the Lamdas the 12th largest brand in America. GM sold more Lamdas than Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz or BMW sold vehicles. While none of these vehicles has undergone a major refreshing, consumers don't seem to mind.
My reason for their success? They're just good vehicles.
5. Toyota is back. We Americans have a very short memory. All of the bad press Toyota Motor Corp. received last year about recalls and unintended acceleration has faded. Toyota's sales were up 17.3 percent in January and the Corolla and Camry were the top-selling vehicles in their segments. The Japanese carmaker has regrouped and its juggernaut resumes juggernauting.
But it's trucks, not cars, that are pushing Toyota's rebound. In January, Toyota truck sales were up 35.3 percent, while car sales grew just 5.9 percent. Only one truck, the FJ Cruiser, saw a dip in sales — down 10.7 percent. That's because the FJ Cruiser is a fad, not a truck, and fortunately, this fad has ended. The real leaders of Toyota's truck movement were the Rav4, Highlander and Sienna.
Anyone who counts Toyota out is foolish.
6. The Cruze will outsell the Ford Focus in 2011 I can't remember the last time the two best compact cars were American brands, but in 2011, that's the case.
The 2011 Chevrolet Cruze and the soon-to-arrive 2012 Ford Focus are top-notch vehicles. And the much-anticipated Focus is touted by many experts as a true game changer (a phrase I detest).
But in 2011, the Cruze will win the title as most popular compact car from Detroit's automakers.
Here's why: First, the Cruze has been out since the fall. It's not launching, it's launched. The head start shows up in the January numbers with Chevy selling 13,631 Cruzes. It outsold the Honda Accord. Meanwhile, Ford sold 9,014 Focus. Ford still has to get rid of the previous-generation Focus and ramp up production for the new Focus. That will cost it sales.
Yes, the Focus is more stylish and much more attractive to younger buyers, but that won't help it win the top spot.
The Cruze is less expensive overall. Additionally, I've heard anecdotally from many people who like the new Focus but are picking the Cruze because it's not as fancy. Consumers don't want to buy a car with a personality bigger than themselves. Case in point: the homely Toyota Corolla is the top-selling compact car right now. Furthermore, Ford could lose customers to its own Fiesta, a sporty subcompact that is more affordable.
7. Minivans have reloaded. The reason minivan sales jumped 65.3 percent is because nearly every minivan being offered today is new or generously refreshed. The Chrysler Town & Country (so refreshed it's almost all new), Honda Odyssey (new), Toyota Sienna (new) and Dodge Caravan (refreshed) all saw huge sales jumps. The all-new Nissan Quest will join that group in February so look for even more sales increases.
People looking for a family hauler have never had it better — or harder — to find the right one.
8. In four months, Chevrolet will sell more Volts than Tesla sold roadsters in three years. Chevrolet sold 321 Volts in January and 326 Volts in December. If it can manage to sell 490 Volts in both February and March, it will match Tesla's total output since 2008 worldwide. Tesla's numbers aren't tracked by Autodata, but assuming last year's pace of about 500 vehicles, by the end of March Tesla will have sold about 1,615 roadsters. (My math: 1.3 cars a day times 89 days in the new year.) Chevy will have sold 1,627.
Of course, there are big differences between the two cars. The four-passenger Volt is considered expensive at $41,000 and the two-passenger Roadster is an all-electric cutting edge sports car priced at over $100,000. This will change when the Tesla Model S arrives next year and sales jump to the pace of Maserati (114 units in January).
And if I'm wrong, we only have to wait until the end of April before I'm right.
9. Cars and trucks to watch. Judging by January numbers, there are plenty of vehicles worth watching closely:Chevrolet Camaro: With the new convertible coming, it could stay ahead of the Ford Mustang in sales.
Ford Explorer: Sales shot up 73.1 percent year over year and that's because the redesigned Explorer is that much nicer. Will the sales jump continue?
Honda Civic: A new Civic arrives later this year — so sales could be all over the place on a month to month basis. But don't underestimate its ability to bring customers to the dealership.
Fiat 500: It's been 27 years since Fiat sold new cars in America. How this quirky little car does in America could set the tone for Chrysler Group LLC's future.
Hyundai Elantra: This is the dark horse in the compact car segment with lots of features, a modest price and 40 mpg on the highway. It's also about to get a big boost during the Super Bowl when Hyundai continues its ad campaign. Will that mean Super Sales in February? Think about it.
10. Trucks will lead the automotive sales recovery. Maybe. Unfortunately, carmakers are leaning heavily on truck sales to lead the recovery. Chrysler, which 83 percent of its January sales were trucks, is especially at risk. Even Toyota has its trucks sales propping it up its recovery.
In January, Toyota's total truck sales represented 45 percent of its sales — and more than half of those vehicles are the Rav4, Sienna minivan and Highlander. Ford and GM , however, are in a much more precarious position, with their truck sales making up 67 percent and 63 percent of their total sales, respectively, the bulk of which are pickups.
Trucks, specifically pickups, are more sensitive to volatile gas prices and a spike at the pump could translate into a precipitous drop in sales. Even the fear of gas prices going up is enough for some consumers to stay out of dealerships.
My take: Don't go spending any future profits just yet. If the over/under for total car sales is 12.6 million based on January's figures, the safe bet is under.
Labels: Autos Insider
